The question is always, what are home prices doing? And specifically, what are they doing around me? A report released several days ago by the National Association of Realtors stated that: Strong gains in existing-home sales were the predominant pattern in most states during the fourth quarter of 200. The report does show some gains in CA home prices, but what about specifically Sacramento home prices? As always with raw home price statistics, I had to dig deeper(and besides, the N.A.R.’s advice has seemed, at times, “unbiased”. For one, they were predicting home price increases well into 2007,  ground zero for the subprime meltdown.)

First, a quick refresher. As reported by Dataquick, Sacramento home prices in December posted a minor 0.42% gain, year over year. For all of 2009, according to the Sacramento Bee, Sacramento home prices slipped 18.46% compared to 2008. For the 4th quarter of 2009, Dataquick does not, unfortunately, release quarterly data for Sacramento metro home prices. However, all indications point to a small price increase- for example, the number of new housing starts has been increasing(housing starts are just a counter for new housing developments). Remember that housing data lags about 60-90 days which is why we are only now getting 4th quarter 2009 home price statistics. As more data comes in about Sacramento home prices we will post it here.

**Update- According to Bloomberg.com, Sacramento home prices fell 37% in 4th quarter 2009.

These positive signs of Sacrameno home prices can be attributed to a few things.

1. The bank. Banks are much more willing to work out deals with in-trouble home owners, whether through a short sale or loan modification.
2. The inventory. Every granted loan modification or approved short sale means one less foreclosure that will hit the market in [probably] terrible condition and at a ‘overbid-me’ list price.
3. The money. Dramatic action by the Fed purchasing trillions of dollars worth of mortgage backed securities has put an artificial lid on rates, leaving them at 4-5.5% all last year.
4. The law. Changes were made to California’s foreclosure process last year, doubling the time courts took to issue a foreclosure. Additionally, bankruptcy judges were granted the unprecedented ability to ‘cram-down’ or modify debtor’s mortgages.

So are we in the clear? We are still bullish on Sacramento home prices and the status of the entire west coast. Here’s the issues facing home prices:

1. The iceburg. Data issued years ago shows a potential new wave of ARM resets from Alt-A loans, hitting right now. The potential for additional foreclosures and inventory is troubling.
2. The money. As mentioned, rates are artificially low. What happens when the Fed removes the lid? Analysts predict sharp jumps in mortgage rates if inflation rises. Additionally, credit score requirements for loans have increased and loan programs continue to be cut back. These changes lower qualifying home prices and remove buyers from the market.
3. The law. There are concerns that the first time homebuyer credit simply advanced demand, or pushed people forward that were planning on buying anyway. Economists are concerned home prices could be a false positive.

This is all speculation of course. And what happens to Sacramento home prices in the area that you live will vary. The real factor is the median price range your home is in. As the lower end has already had massive declines from the peak, if further decreases in home prices happen, there will be some protection. For example, some higher priced/exclusive communities in CA have had very small price declines only.

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